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afrol.com, 2 October - There is a likelihood of normal to above-normal rainfall over most of Southern Africa for the period October 2000 - March 2001. However, for the period October - December 2000, the northern part of the region including northern Mozambique, Tanzania, the southern half of DRC, and northeastern Angola there is a likelihood of normal to below-normal rainfall. The analysis was published by the fourth Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum, meeting in Botswana. Further, for the January-March 2001 period, there is a likelihood of normal to above normal rainfall across the region, except the central part of South Africa, southern Botswana, southeastern Namibia, Lesotho and the northern half of Tanzania, where normal to below normal rainfall is expected. It should be recalled that some parts of the sub-region experienced floods in the past season. In some of these areas the soil remains saturated. So, even normal rainfall conditions may lead to some risk of flooding especially in the low-lying areas. At the same time northeastern-most areas that are experiencing drought conditions are not likely to have respite. This Outlook is relevant only for seasonal time scales and relatively large areas. Local and month-to-month variations may occur. Any changes in the projected patterns of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and other indicators over the next few weeks would affect the outlook in some areas. The Drought Monitoring Centre in Harare (DMCH) and the National Meteorological Services (NMSs) in Botswana will therefore provide updates of the outlooks in their respective countries. The users are strongly advised to contact their NMSs for interpretation of this Outlook, finer details, updates and additional guidance. The Forum reviewed the state of the global ocean-atmospheric system and its implications for this region. Among the principal factors taken into account were the current state of the La Niña and the sea-surface temperatures over much of the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans. The La Niña has been observed to be dying down and sea surface temperatures are currently near average and are projected to remain around normal during the next six months. The forecast Zone I: (North and western DRC and northwestern Angola) Likelihood of above-normal rainfall. Zone II: (Eastern Angola, much of southern DRC, Tanzania, and northern Mozambique) Likelihood of normal to below-normal rainfall. Zone III: (Coastal strip from central Angola to Namibia) Likelihood of normal to above-normal rainfall. Zone IV: (Northeastern Namibia, southeastern Angola, the extreme northern Botswana, northern Zimbabwe, Zambia, the southeastern tip of DRC, Malawi, and central Mozambique) Likelihood of normal to above-normal rainfall. Zone V: (Southern Namibia, northwestern half of South Africa, most of Botswana and, southern Zimbabwe) Likelihood of above-normal rainfall. Zone VI: (Southeastern half of South Africa, Lesotho, Swaziland and southern Mozambique) Likelihood of normal rainfall. Zone VII: (Mauritius) Likelihood of normal rainfall. Forecast January-March 2001 Zone I: (Northern half of DRC and extreme northwestern Angola) Likelihood of normal rainfall. Zone II: (Northern half of Tanzania) Likelihood of normal to below normal rainfall. Zone III: (Most of Angola, bulk of Namibia, northern Zambia, much of southern DRC, northern half of Malawi and extreme western South Africa) Likelihood of normal to above-normal rainfall. Zone IV: (Southern Tanzania and northern Mozambique) Likelihood of normal rainfall. Zone V: (Southern half of Zambia, southeastern tip of DRC, northeastern half of Botswana, southern half of Malawi, Zimbabwe, extreme northeastern Namibia, northeastern portion of South Africa, Swaziland, central and southern Mozambique) Likelihood of normal to above normal rainfall. Zone VI: (Southwestern Botswana, much of central parts of South Africa, Lesotho and southeastern Namibia) Likelihood of normal to below normal rainfall. Zone VII: (Mauritius) Likelihood of normal rainfall.
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