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These positive trends in the later part of the year 2000 have brought much optimism for this troubled region. But conflict analysts warn that we are not about to see the end of African conflicts in the next year. "I think we have gone the wrong way. We have either been using the right methodologies at the wrong time or the wrong methodologies at the right time argues Chris Abong'o," a lecturer and doctorate candidate at the University of Nairobi's Institute of Diplomacy and International Studies. In the Eritrea-Ethiopian case, for example, both sides clearly agreed to sign the agreement under pressure from the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) and other international partners, but both still retain suspicions over each other's intentions. "This agreement is just aimed at ending hostilities, but it doesn't include resumption of friendly relations. We still do not trust them because of the nature of their dictatorial government," confirms Mengistu Ayalew, a Counsellor at the Ethiopian embassy in Nairobi. "They have tried to attack Somalia, Djibouti, and Yemen. It will take a radical change of their government before we can trust them," he told IPS. The situation is similar in Burundi, where a peace agreement signed in August this year in the presence of former South African president and chief mediator, Nelson Mandela, and US president Bill Clinton so far has little indication of holding much water. The deal sought to a fairer share of power between the minority Tutsi elite, which has dominated government and business since independence in 1962, and Hutus who form about 80 percent of the country's population. The two main Tutsi parties, UPONA and PARENA, signed the power sharing agreement but five smaller Tutsi groups reluctantly signed the power sharing agreement after much chastising by facilitator, Nelson Mandela, but even though hamstrung it with numerous reservations that would made it difficult to implement. Rebels of the National Liberation Forces (FNL), which was not included among the parties who signed the August peace accord aimed at ending the civil war, have, since September 15 increased their activities in rural parts of Bujumbura, the capital. As much as half of the continent is still involved in armed conflicts, a number spilling across borders spreading to neighbouring countries. Diplomatic efforts to control and manage the conflicts have, in most cases, failed. Part of the blame for the escalation of conflict in the region has been attributed largely to Organisation of African Unity (OAU), whose conflict management strategies are largely seen to have floundered. "Conflicts should not have been allowed to flare to the dysfunctional level that they are. The idea of an early warning system was to deal with conflicts when they are still smoking, and not rush to put out the fire," Abong'o told IPS. The OAU played a central role in the signing of the agreement to end the border conflict between Eritrea and Ethiopia, but has largely failed to contain internal strife within member states, brought about by the resurgence of self determination and ethnicity. Because the Organisation of African Unity (OAU) has tied itself to its charter which forbids it to interfere in the internal affairs of member states, the regional body has not been seen as part of an effort to resolve the many internal conflicts in Africa. "Every organisation must have aims and goals. But OAU has something very vague. There are too many obstacles for unity," notes Akasha Alsayed Akasha who runs the Nairobi based Centre for Strategic and Peace Research. Many of the internal conflict's in the region, according to Abong'o, involve natural resources yet, leaders concentrate only on resolving the political aspects of conflicts. "They are talking about political conflicts, when there are hundreds of environmental issues involved. They are ignoring this. They should first identify the inter phase between environmental and political conflicts, before attempting to manage the conflicts," he adds In Sierra Leone, where a simmering internal conflict has spiralled out of control in the past year, the issue has been the control of the strategic diamond mines in the Western African country. This year saw the disastrous hostage taking episodes of the United Nations peace keepers deployed to monitor peace agreements, signed earlier, between the government Ahmed Tejan Kabbah and the Revolutionary United Front (RUF) rebels led by Foday Sankoh. "Sierra Leone reminds us that we should not necessarily assume the good faith of the parties," warns Shashi Tharoor, a senior aide to UN secretary general Koffi Annan. "While hoping for the best, we must sometimes plan and prepare for the worst." In both Angola, where UNITA rebels led by Jonas Savimbi have waged a war on the government of president Eduardos Santos, and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) currently embroiled in a conflict which has drawn other eight nations in, the issue largely is influenced by external factors involves resources. But as leaders struggle to acquire power, tools of war have not only become expensive, but also diverted resources badly needed in development. The Sudan government, for example, spends and estimated one US dollar a day on the conflict in the southern part of the country, rich in oil, minerals and other resources like timber. The 17-year-old conflict has resulted in the deaths of more than two million people, and displaced at least five million people. Ethiopia and Eritrea both spent an estimated 80 percent of their national budgets on war artillery, which cost the lives of at least 400,000 soldiers on both sides. In Uganda, the government of President Yoweri Museveni spends about 40 percent of national budget on the army. If, for example, one bullet of artillery, costing about 12,000 US dollars, can build a school or a health Centre in Africa while the cost of one tank is equivalent to the price of 100 farm tractors, says Akasha, then Africa needs no enemies with its current leadership. "People suffer all the time from starvation, because our leaders are not interested in development. They are interested only in acquiring power by all means," Akasha told IPS. By
Judith Achieng', IPS
©
IPS.
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