Zimbabwe
Mugabe won’t go without a bloody fight

misanet.com / The Zimbabwe Independent, 
4 November - by Vincent Kahiya

Zimbabweans have often been accused of being stoical if not docile. This seeming indifference to the social and political beatings they have taken over the years has been construed by their rulers as a sign of resilience - even an invitation to more of the same!

This could prove a mistake. There is a groundswell of social discontent which has, however, not manifested itself in an organi- sed, co-ordinated and disciplined mass protests capable of shaking the very core of the establishment. 

The government’s solution to the crisis facing the country has been to propose tripartite negotia- tions with business and the unions. This has been a tactic that the rulers have employed in their quest to be seen to be dealing with problems. But the results thereof are yet to be tasted by the man on the street.

On the civic side there have been calls for a physical translation of the popular discontent into mass mobilisation and protests. The opposition Movement for Democratic Change has come out explicitly to say that it would organise mass action to put pressure on President Mugabe to leave office. 

The MDC believes that there is enough discontent to fuel the fires of rebellion. The party is keen to use the statement made by the urban vote in the June election to spur the populace into mass action against an unpopular government. 

There is a belief that the mass action would achieve the desired results as there are precedents to derive inspiration from.

Popular uprisings in Indonesia, Yugoslavia and last week the Ivory Coast have ousted unpopular regimes and installed more democratic leaders. But there have been questions as to whether civic society has the capacity to organise and sustain such protests. The stark reality is that spontaneous mass action in Zimbabwe is difficult to achieve in the absence of proper organisation and civic education.

They must tread carefully. The 1998 food riots demonstrated how explosive Zimbabweans can be and the food riots last month are generally considered a dress rehearsal of bigger things to come. The expectation is made plausible by the fact that Zimbabweans are much poorer today than they were in 1998, hence any protest could ignite a dynamite warehouse.
The first civic thrust has been the bold statement by the United People for National Survival telling Mugabe to “GO”.

“The people have spoken Mr Mugabe, and they want you to GO,” reads part of the full-page advertisements that the new civic player has been placing in newspapers. 

The group has been distributing red “GO” cards which it says should be waved at 1pm daily until “the man goes”. 

“Remember, all that is necessary for evil to prevail is for good people to do nothing. Please play your part and join this national protest,” reads the advert.

Thousands of the stickers and cards have already been distributed but pointers on the ground show that there is not likely to be much movement even if the recent Gallup poll said 74% of Zimbabweans want Mugabe to step down.

Social commentator and author Chenjerai Hove said the “GO” movement would not have an impact on Mugabe who has become more stubborn with each new dissenting voice.

“I don’t think this will work because the government is very arrogant,” said Hove.

“The government will not succumb even if everyone waves the red card. Mugabe is not attentive to the public no matter how large it is; this will only make him angry,” said Hove.

Mugabe has of late fortified himself against any criticism in his quest to defend the indefensible. While at first he regarded the MDC as a mere vexation, he has realised the threat that the opposition poses to his political survival. He would rather go down fighting than exit quietly. 

Political scientists said the mass action that the MDC has called later this month could provide some movement but they see numerous obstacles on the way. They believe that the Indonesian or Yugoslav-type mass action would be difficult to execute here. They however believe that the simmering discontent would boil over when the time is nigh.

Political scientist John Makumbe said Zimbabweans were basking in relative comfort hence the revolutionary fever had been deferred. He however warned that this scenario was under threat.

“Zimbabweans are docile because some things are still working,” said Makumbe.

“There is a comfort zone in Zimbabwe and there are some who are still living in it. That zone is however being eroded and it is going to be eroded until the people say we have nothing left to lose,” he said.

The attrition of the comfort zone and the waning of Mugabe’s support, Makumbe said, were a recipe for popular dissent but he doubts the ability of the Zimbabweans to sustain a mass movement.

“Zimbabweans can really be explosive but it is the sustainability that needs to be organised,” he said. “Demonstrations take two to three days before divisions emerge among the people mainly due to reports on television and on radio. We are unlikely to see the Indonesian scenario where someone would wake up with nothing in mind but to go and demonstrate on the streets,” he said.

Dr Alfred Nhema of the University of Zimbabwe said apart from the people’s ability to sustain the demonstration, the physical planning of the urban areas, especially Harare, enhanced the government’s ability to break an uprising. 

“The problem with staging an urban uprising comes from the way townships were located and designed by the colonial government. The townships were designed with the need to contain any urban uprising,” he said. Nhema said the high-density areas were set apart which enabled the police to isolate the trouble areas and suppress an uprising. Disturbances can
also be prevented from spilling over to other areas as roads connecting the townships can be sealed off.

Nhema said the closure of the access roads would prevent people from coming into the city centre where demonstrators can be co-ordinated. Of late, there has been a concerted effort by the government to ruthlessly deal with crowd disturbances. The military clampdown during the food riots, analysts said, was a loud avowal that the government would have none of that.

Analysts said the government’s priority in the impending protests would be in ensuring that the people would not gather in the first place. “The tactic this time around would be to shut them up in their homes and ensure that they do no get into town,” said one ex-police officer and security consultant.

“In Indonesia the people were allowed to go out and demonstrate on the streets but the government would want to ensure that this will not happen here as was shown by the police and army actions in Mabvuku and Glen View,” he said. He said heavy-handedness had become the new strategy. Negotiation and persuasion have failed to woo supporters and the alternative is to, if necessary, bludgeon them into submission.

 

© Vincent Kahiya/The Zimbabwe Independent    You can contact afrol.com at mail@afrol.com