zim066 Mugabe's party prepares for his exit

Zimbabwe
Mugabe's party prepares for his exit

Pages
Zimbabwe Home Page
Zimbabwe - News
Zimbabwe Archive
Zimbabwe Index
News

In Internet
ZIMweb
The Zimbabwe Independent
Zimbabwe Government Online
MISA

misanet.com / The Insider, 28 November
by Charles Rukuni

With a budget deficit of 23 percent of gross domestic product, debts totalling $207 billion, repayment arrears of US$ 488.1 million, unemployment at 60 percent, most people now believe President Mugabe's administration cannot turn around Zimbabwe's ailing economy. Not while Mugabe is still in power.

Even his lieutenants have described him as a liability to the party, but, it appears, the 76-year-old leader wants to hang on. He is even reported to be planning to contest another term in 2002. But the young "Turks" in his party are reported to be calling for his head arguing that if he does not go, he will take the party down with him. They cannot accept this, as their future is at stake.

But their biggest problem is that they have not come up with a clear successor to Mugabe. This puts Mugabe one up. The name that keeps popping up is that of Finance Minister Simba Makoni but he has not publicly stated that he wants to lead the party. Some say, it would be suicidal. One political commentator said if Makoni announced his intention, or even showed interest, "they will take him down for six". Simply put, he said, the party leadership would eliminate him.

At 50, Makoni would have offered a plausible challenge to Movement for Democratic Change leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, who is two years younger. But observers say a number of things are not in his favour. First of all, they say, he comes from the wrong province, Manicaland. The Karanga who form the majority among the Shona-speaking group have been insisting that it's their turn to take over from the Zezuru.

It is not clear whether Makoni himself is interested. He is reported to have turned down an offer to lead ZANU-PF's Manicaland province which would have been a good stepping stone. Besides, having spent 10 years out of the country, Makoni is largely considered an outsider.

Sources also say he is considered to have no "respect" for the elders. These sources say the old guard within the ruling party fears that if Makoni were to lead the party he could instigate a purge that would see some of the leaders going to jail for crimes that they have committed over the past two decades. This, the sources say, could include calling on the leaders to account for how they accumulated the wealth they now have.

Makoni seems to have confirmed this in his budget for 2001 when he said the government should recover all monies it is owed through the War Victims Compensation Fund and the Government Housing Scheme.

From the petrol queue

Farai and Mushore burst into laughter as they looked at a cartoon in the Daily News. It showed a big irate woman bursting into hotel room 666, ignoring the "Do not disturb" sign, and finding her husband in bed with another woman. "So you're spending the night in a petrol queue, huh?" the irate woman, armed with a rolling pin, asks.

Farai and Mushore are both married. If their wives had been present, they would probably not have laughed at the cartoon. They had just spent two nights at Victoria Service Station, at the corner of Robert Mugabe Way and 10th Avenue in Bulawayo, queuing for petrol. Adjacent to the service station is the three-star Bulawayo Rainbow Hotel. And just across the street is the Silver Fox Night Club. It was a Friday. All signs were that they were going to spend another night in the queue. Sex workers had already started scouting.

Although the local daily, The Chronicle, had carried a story about a train load of fuel arriving that morning, there was no sign of the liquid gold. But a young man carrying a blue 20-litre plastic container had it. Although motorists had been queuing for fuel for days, no one bought fuel from the young man. It was just too expensive. He was selling 20 litres for $1500, almost double the official $874.80.

Once in a while a motorist would approach him and ask if he could sell him just five litres. But the young man insisted the best he could do was halve it to 10 litres which would go for $750. No one asked where he had got it. Service stations were supposedly not allowed to serve fuel in containers. They could occasionally help stranded motorists. But they would only give them five litres.

At around three in the afternoon, Farai and Mushore, who had been in high spirits throughout the day, were beginning to despair. But their boss send a messenger with $100 for each of them. They went to a bottle across the street and bought two halves of Chateu Brandy. When they came back, it was party time at the back of Farai's van. They seemed to have forgotten about the long wait and the three unproductive days. The weekend had began. And it seemed they no longer cared whether they spend another night in the queue.

Fuel was delivered shortly after 5.30. But by the time the tanker had finished off-loading, it was after six. The service station closed at six. Although the pump attendants were quite aware that more than a dozen clients had been in the queue for the past three days, they insisted they would only start serving the following morning at 6.30. Farai and Mushore, whose cars were number two and five in the queue, were disappointed but relieved. They were now certain they were going to get the fuel the following day.

Farai and Mushore, however, got a shock the following morning. They were told they could only each get fuel worth $1 000, or 23 litres. After waiting for four days, they were getting fuel that was not enough to get them to Victoria Falls, where they were working on a project.

Welcome to Zimbabwe a la Mugabe.

What started as a "temporary hitch" in November last year, with the government insisting it was going to rectify the problem, has turned into a year-long nightmare. Although several deals to bring in fuel to the country have been signed, the problem still persists.

The old guard are also worried that at 50, Makoni might want a young leadership which would accommodate the young Turks Mugabe appointed to his cabinet but would throw out all the geriatrics in government since independence. Makoni as well as seven younger ministers are currently excluded from the powerful politburo, Mugabe's inner cabinet.

The new ministers not in the politburo, but holding powerful ministerial posts are: Joseph Made, who is handling the powerful but highly controversial Ministry of Lands and Agriculture; Nkosana Moyo, a banker and the person who should resuscitate the ailing economy through his Industry and International Trade Ministry, Jonathan Moyo, the government chief spokesman who is now reported to be attending politburo meetings but is not a member; Francis Nhema who handles, Environment and Tourism which had become the country's largest contributor to GDP but has been adversely affected by the bad publicity the country is receiving; Samuel Mumbengegwi who is in charge of Education, Sport and Culture, the biggest portfolio in government in terms of government spending; July Moyo, a former civil servant now in charge of the powerful Public Service, Labour and Social Welfare which handles labour; and Border Gezi, a man who once said Mugabe should go but then changed his mind to back him up by spearheading land invasions in Mashonaland Central and is now in charge of Youth Development, Gender and Employment Creation.

These ministers could back Makoni because they do not only have their political but professional careers at stake Besides, almost all of them were incorporated in a special task force that was appointed to look into the restructuring of the party after its dismal performance in the June elections. The task force comprised Nkosana Moyo, Made, Ignatius Chombo, Jonathan Moyo, Sithembiso Nyoni, Olivia Muchena, July Moyo and David Parirenyatwa, all young technocrats.

The young Turks are likely to have the support of Matebeleland, which is now MDC territory. Matebeleland is reported to be fully behind a young leader like Makoni. They would also like to purge the old ZAPU leadership within the province and come up with young unknowns who can build the party literally from scratch.

But the old guard and Mugabe himself are not going to give up easily. The politburo has already endorsed Mugabe as their candidate for 2002. They want to stick together to the bitter end. But some are reported to be playing a different card game. One of the plans allegedly on the cards is to convince vice-President Simon Muzenda to take over.

Under the plan dubbed the Karanga-Karanga connection, Muzenda and Masvingo supremo, Eddison Zvobgo, together with two outsiders, Dumiso Dabengwa and Charles Ndlovu, would push for Muzenda to take over as caretaker with Zvobgo and Dabengwa as his deputies. Ndlovu, now known by his original name Webster Shamu, could come in to represent the Zezuru interests. Under this plan, if neither of these people are acceptable, former air force chief Josiah Tungamirai could be brought in to take over. Tungamirai has youth on his side and commands the respect of the army, a key factor on who ever takes over. But reports that Tungamirai is not well could scuttle this plan.

Reports, however, say speaker Emmerson Mnangagwa is working on a counter-plan, but it also involves Muzenda. Mnangagwa has always been tipped to take over from Mugabe but he has been blocked by his colleagues. Under this plan, reports say, Mnangagwa would go for Zvobgo, "make sure he is in as much trouble as possible", and thus get excluded.

Under the plan, Mugabe would be returned as party leader but shortly after the special congress, he would be persuaded to leave the country. Whispers say, two countries, France and North Korea, are ready to give him asylum. Mugabe himself is reported to have vowed that he would rather die in his own country but has also clandestinely accepted arrangements for him to take the gap.

If Mugabe leaves, Muzenda would take over but Mnangagwa would find a way of getting Muzenda out. While Mnangagwa is not popular within the party, as witnessed by his failure to win the national chairmanship at last year's congress and his defeat in Kwekwe by Blessing Chebundo in the June elections, he commands the respect of the army. He is a close friend of the commander of the defence forces, General Vitalis Zvinavashe. As former intelligence boss, he may also have good connections with that department. It is also widely believed that because of his connections with and influence over Laurent Kabila, Mnangagwa could actually end the war in the DRC.

But all these plans could be scuttled by people power when the party meets for its special congress next month. Sources say more than 90 percent of the party's central committee now want Mugabe to go. His recent fall in Malaysia, which some say indicates his frailty, could be used to force him to step down. But party structures have been thrown into total confusion since the June elections with the majority of provincial executives being suspended. This could actually divert discussion at the congress.

The special congress was originally scheduled for February to discuss whether President Mugabe should be allowed to continue appointing members of the politburo or they should be elected by the people. Another issue that was on the agenda was the quota for women in the central committee. The party wants a quota system in which at least one-third of the members are women.

With the present chaos in the party, deliberately instigated by the party leadership, sources say, the issue of succession might not even be discussed. But if it is brought up, it could spring some surprises. Tired of recycling the same old names a dark horse might actually emerge.

By Charles Rukuni, The Insider (Zimbabwe)