afrol News, 30 July - One day before the UN Security Council decides on a possible renovation of its mission to Western Sahara, stakes are high at defining a possible final peace plan. The Sahrawi delegation accepts a risky US peace plan, spiced with Algeria's reconciliation offer, while France still supports Morocco's rejection efforts.

The US delegation at the UN negotiations on Western Sahara is reported to have presented a "softened" resolution text in a last minute attempt to achieve a French-Moroccan acceptance of the so-called Baker peace plan, dubbed after the US ex-Secretary of State and present UN Personal Envoy to Western Sahara.

The "softened version" would be less demanding on Morocco and widen the possibilities for interpretation when the plan is to be effectuated. It however would not change the essentials of the Baker plan, i.e. the establishment of an autonomous Western Sahara province in Morocco for five years, probably to be ruled by the Sahrawi independence movement Polisario. After that, the population - a majority being Moroccan immigrants - would vote on independence.

The Baker plan, although going back on earlier UN guarantees of holding the referendum solely among Sahrawis - surprisingly has been accepted by the Polisario but not by the Moroccan government, which originally had drafted the basic structure of the plan.

Polisario representatives in New York are presently lobbying strongly for the UN Security Council's acceptance of the plan they originally were against. Diplomatic sources tell afrol News the movement is serious about implementing the Baker plan, although it could mean that a Moroccan population majority in the referendum could put a definite end to Western Sahara's independence ambitions.

The Polisario had to face new realities in a changing world, the anonymous source said. "Nobody is willing to pressure Morocco to accept the original plan" of a purely Sahrawi referendum "and a return to war is not desirable at all," the source said.

During the last months, pressure on the Sahrawis to accept a revised solution has increased. Even Polisario's two closest allies, the governments of Algeria and Spain, have changed their language considerably, both being interested in finally normalising their relationship to their Moroccan neighbour. The Spanish government, for example, now demands a referendum among "inhabitants" of Western Sahara, not among Sahrawis.

- We are willing to take the responsibility and risks to create new movement in the case, as Morocco fears any change and wants to maintain status quo for ever and ever, the diplomatic source told afrol News. There however existed a possibility that the Sahrawi exiled government, based in the Algerian refugee camps, would not accept the far-going concessions made by their negotiators in New York.

For the Sahrawis, it is a calculated risk giving in to the Baker plan, the source said. By implementing the plan, an autonomous Sahrawi province, probably under Polisario rule, would contrast the undemocratic Rabat regime, Polisario holds. Although an estimated 65 to 70 percent of voters would be of Moroccan origin, a good Polisario administration could still produce a pro-independence majority.

The Moroccan government meanwhile is hardening its language, demanding that any solution to the Western Sahara conflict must "base on the territorial integrity of Morocco," meaning that any solution that could lead to the independence of the territory had to be excluded from the peace plan. France, as a permanent member to the UN Security Council with veto rights, in practical terms accepts this view.

While the original Baker plan, which until recently had the backing of France, included the imposition of solutions by the UN if the two partied could not reach an agreement, France now insists on a solution accepted by both parties. This change of heart came after Morocco's sudden refusal of the Baker plan.

As the French UN representatives struggle to find a Security Council resolution text that would not oblige Morocco to bow into UN decisions against its will, the basis of the Baker plan threatens to fade away. Resolving all details based on "the consent of all parties," as Morocco now demands, has proven fruitless in the 12 years the UN peacekeeping mission in Western Sahara (MINURSO) has existed, mostly due to Moroccan tactics of dragging out the time.

Pressure on Morocco and France is however also increasing. The US government, which is among Morocco's key military and trade allies, totally backs the plan by its former Secretary of State and urges the Moroccan government to accept the same Baker plan. Polisario is said to have earned much US goodwill by accepting the risky Baker plan.

Also Algeria, a traditional Polisario ally, has made new offers to the Moroccan government to make it accept the Baker plan. Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika recently sent a message to Moroccan King Mohammed VI, offering to restore normal ties after decades of tension. The Moroccan-Algerian land border has been closed since 1994.

Friendly relations between Algeria and Morocco are seen as necessary for the establishment of the long planned Maghreb economic union and for the integration of Morocco in the African Union. Both issues have failed due to Morocco's continued occupation of Western Sahara and the failure to find a final peaceful solution.

In New York, meanwhile, Security Council members are hurrying to find just that before the mandate of MINURSO - which supervises the Moroccan-Sahrawi ceasefire since 1991 - terminates tomorrow, 31 July. A new Security Council resolution, which should include adherence to the Baker plan, must be adopted within tomorrow to prolong the UN peacekeepers' mandate for another half year.

The typical outcome of a locked situation such as the present is however not deciding anything in the Security Council. There always exists a last option of prolonging MINURSO's mandate for a short time span, urging the parties to find a solution meanwhile. Then, pressure would be off Morocco for a while, and the occupation situation could be fermented still more.

By staff writer

© afrol News

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