Misanet / IRIN, 21 September - President Mamadou Tandja of Niger appears well placed to win a second five-year term in elections later this year, following a strong showing by his supporters in local government elections in July. A split within the opposition further favours the retired colonel, who has succeeded in building a political coalition in support of him.

Political analysts also cite strong support for President Tandja's rural development policies among the subsistence farmers who account for the majority of Niger's 11 million population. His government has ordered 1,000 new school classrooms to be built each year, along with 1,000 health centres and 1,000 mini-dams for irrigation and 1000 wells for watering livestock.

President Tandja's main opponent in the first round of the presidential election on 13 November is likely to be Mahamadou Issoufou, leader of the Niger Party for Democracy and Socialism (PNDS), the largest opposition party in parliament.

If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round of the presidential poll, a second round run-off between the two leading candidates will be held on 4 December, alongside parliamentary elections.

Opposition leader Issoufou was beaten into second place by Colonel Tandja and his ruling National Movement for Society and Development (MNSD) in 1999 after Mr Tandja gained the support of former President Mahamane Ousmane in the second round of the election. Political analysts in Niamey expect a re-run of the same scenario this year.

Ex-President Ousmane, who is currently the speaker of the Nigerien parliament, leads the Social Democratic Convention (CDS), the third largest party in the legislature. Mr Ousmane beat Mr Tandja in the 1993 presidential election and duly became head of state, only to be deposed by a military coup three years later.

However, since then, the two men have reached a political understanding. Mr Ousmane helped Mr Tandja to win power in 1999 and his CDS helped President Tandja's MNSD to retain control of local government in this year's municipal polls.

Although Mr Ousmane has officially registered himself as a candidate for this year's presidential election, his party allied itself with President Tandja's MNSD and another party, the Alliance for Democracy and Progress (ADP) in the 24 July local council elections. This three-party presidential coalition swept the board, winning 62 percent of all council seats in the country.

President Tandja, who is now 66, is a former army colonel. His party, the MNSD, was created by the military junta that ousted from power the military regime of Seynou Kountche in a 1987 coup. However, Mr Tandja's own rise to power has been exclusively through the ballot box.

He was already retired from the army when he became MNSD leader in 1991 and he fought and lost a presidential election before he eventually achieved power in what was generally perceived by international observers as a clean vote five years ago.

Niger is a desperately poor country which ranks only one up from Sierra Leone at the bottom of the UN's Development Programme's Human Development Index. The former French colony has a gross domestic product of just US$ 190 per capita and derives a meagre foreign exchange income from exports of cotton and uranium. According to the UN, over 61 percent of its people scrape by on less than US$ 1 per day.

Donors have been invited to help fund two thirds of the estimated US$ 10 million cost of holding this year's presidential and parliamentary elections. But political analysts in Niamey expect Niger's Independent National Electoral Commission to once more conduct a free, fair and peaceful ballot.

President Tandja's ruling MSND has 38 deputies in the outgoing 83-seat parliament. It is the largest party in the single chamber legislature, but lacks an absolute majority. Mr Issoufou's PNDS fronts the opposition with 18 seats. Mr Ousmane's CDS, which often supports President Tandja's government, has 17 seats.

By UN media IRIN

© afrol News / IRIN

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