afrol News, 1 June - "The internal situation in Chad is deteriorating rapidly," a new security report on the country concludes, and spill-over from the Darfur crisis is only part of the reason. "The absence of domestic political space has militarised all political differences in Chad," according to ICG analyst David Mozersky.

The International Crisis Group (ICG), a Brussels-based think-tank specialising on security issues, today released its report "Chad: Back towards War?", examining the country's growing instability. The report warns that Chad could be heading back to the many eras of civil war that the impoverished country has experienced so many times since independence.

According to the report "Sudan's deliberate use of Chadian warlords in its counter-insurgency strategy in Darfur and as a tool in its attempts to topple President Idriss Déby is just one aspect of Chad's woes." The respected Brussels-based institution thus goes far in establishing Sudan's poorly documented anti-Déby campaign as "proven facts". The ever deeper convergence of the two crises underlines the difficulty of settling one independently of the other.

However, ICG holds that other, internal problems are more worrying for the N'djamena regime. "Chad's troubles are equally the result of Déby's brittle semi-authoritarian regime, and the charade of the 3 May presidential election only made things worse," the report says. ICG analyst Mozersky laments the "absence of domestic political space," radicalising Chadian politicians and masses.

President Déby's sixteen-year rule has been marked by coup attempts and rebellions that were either suppressed with extreme violence or partially settled by expelling dissident elements to Sudan and the Central African Republic. Chad has known relative peace during most of Mr Déby's reign but never reconciliation, since renegotiating the social contract would have weakened the militarily dominant groups and opened a political process President Déby did not control.

The April 2006 rebel offensive brought Chad to the brink of all-out civil war. The victory President Déby ultimately achieved in pushing the United Front for Democracy and Change (FUCD) back from the gates of N'djamena, to its Darfur sanctuary however settled nothing militarily and highlighted the political fragility of the regime. The army's success was primarily due to French logistical and intelligence support.

According to ICG research, the armed opposition to President Déby has three significant groups: the FUCD, headed by Mahamat Nour, "which receives strong Sudanese support"; the Zaghawa dissident groups, under the Rally of Democratic Forces (RaFD) umbrella and chaired by Timan Erdimi, a former director of Mr Déby's cabinet; and the Movement for Democracy and Justice in Chad (MDJT), established in 1998 and operating in the extreme north along the Libyan border under the command of Mahmat Choua Dazi.

"This armed opposition, however, reflects only the aspirations of marginal or minority groups in the population," the report establishes. "A regime change by force in such a context would bring neither stabilisation nor a democratic opening," ICG warns.

There are about 70 political parties in Chad, the most significant of which joined in 2002 to create the Coordination of Political Parties for the Defence of Democracy (CPPDD), and civil society has become increasingly organised. These parties, while mostly strongly opposing President Déby, would not accept the armed rebel groups establishing a minority military regime in N'djamena.

"Chadians share a common aspiration for security, in particular an end to ubiquitous police and army harassment, and a national dialogue that permits a political opening and transparent elections," comments the ICG's Suliman Baldo. The 1996 and 1997 elections were marred by fraud; those of 2001 and 2002 were farcical - now Chad would need a real democratisation process.

By staff writer

© afrol News

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