afrol News, 26 January - Somalia may already be heading towards the divided clan society it was before the December war, peace and security experts warn. As Ethiopian troops have started pulling out, radical Islamists or ancient clan warlords may gain ground again if peacekeepers and donors are not quick to step in. But with international help, this is also a good opportunity to secure lasting peace.

The Brussels-based think-tank International Crisis Group (ICG) today published its latest reports on Somalia, illustratively titled "The tough part is ahead". Quite optimistically, the security experts conclude that the Ethiopian and Somali governments' December victory over the Islamists "provides an historic opportunity for stabilisation and reconstruction, but it carries equal risks."

Somalia's transitional government is still weak, unpopular and faction ridden, and the power vacuum in southern Somalia is rapidly being filled by the same faction leaders and warlords the Islamic Courts overthrew less than a year ago, the report notes.

"Politically, Somalia is roughly where it was when the transitional federal government (TGF) was formed in October 2004," says John Prendergast of the ICG. "Lasting peace can only be achieved if the TFG negotiates transparently with Islamist elements and disaffected clan leaders to form a genuine government of national unity," he advises.

The Islamist collapse had signalled "a return of clan-based politics to southern Somalia," the ICG noted. "The potential for serious violence is just below the surface and could be heightened by an early Ethiopian withdrawal."

According to the analysis, Mogadishu residents "resent" the defeat of the Islamists, "feel threatened" by the transitional government and are "dismayed" by the presence of Ethiopian troops in the capital. Islamist elements, including the Shabaab militants and their al-Qaeda associates, are believed to have survived largely intact and threaten guerrilla war. Mogadishu is awash with weapons, and there have already been hit-and-run attacks on Somali and Ethiopian troops, the ICG warns.

To prevent the jihadists from staging a comeback, the Somali government was advised to "restore stability and win public support across southern Somalia. It should reconstitute the cabinet as a genuine government of national unity, including credible leaders from the communities that backed the [Islamist] Courts," the analysts hold, adding there is need for a process of national reconciliation and preparations for elections in 2009.

The ICG holds that "Ethiopia and the US bear a significant responsibility to consolidate peace." Washington and Addis Ababa therefore needed to "push" the Somali government "to transform itself into a more inclusive national body" with a firm commitment to consultation, reconciliation and power sharing.

"Failure to grasp this opportunity would mean an all-too familiar story line for Somalia of factional fighting and fractured government," says the ICG's David Mozersky. "Then the conditions that led to the rise of the Courts would surely repeat themselves sooner or later."

By staff writer

© afrol News

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