afrol News, 5 March - The situation in today's Zimbabwe "is reminiscent of the last stages of Mobutu's reign in the Congo," political analysts claim, holding that discontent with President Robert Mugabe is widespread among civil society, the armed forces and even the ruling party. The time could be right to press for Mr Mugabe's retirement in 2008 and "a power-sharing deal to create a transitional government."

Analysts at the prestigious Brussels-based think-tank International Crisis Group (ICG) in their latest report on Zimbabwe claim to observe that "the long political stalemate in Zimbabwe may be breaking at last." A collapsing economy and Western sanctions are having their effect on all parts of society, even President Mugabe's closest aides.

According to the report, the current moment holds a unique chance "to resolve the situation through the retirement of President Robert Mugabe when his term ends in 2008 and a power-sharing deal to create a transitional government tasked with preparing a new constitution and holding elections by 2010." But regional intervention and continued Western pressure would be needed to ensure a peaceful restoration of democracy.

The country is in a very fragile condition: the economy is near meltdown, and discontent among underpaid police and troops, combined with the willingness of opposition parties and civil society to protest in the streets, all increase the risk of sudden major violence.

"For Zimbabwe to begin to recover, President Mugabe must give up efforts to extend his term, and the opposing parties must negotiate a compromise," the ICG report said. The months leading to the July parliament session, when decisions will be taken on Mr Mugabe's fate or transition, were said to be crucial.

"The prospect of President Mugabe's retirement has created an exceptional rallying point among varied constituencies within the country", says François Grignon of the ICG. "There is widespread agreement that he must leave so that the country can finally make progress on the needed economic and political reforms," he added.

Pressure by the European Union and the US, through targeted sanctions and isolation, had helped divide the ruling party, ZANU-PF, persuading key figures whose business interests have been hard hit by the current crisis, that change is needed. "This pressure should be increased if ZANU-PF does not cooperate with the opposition to implement a transitional government and restore democracy," the ICG urges.

The regional Southern African Development Community (SADC) was urged to work as a mediator for negotiations between ZANU-PF and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and join the EU and the US in defining a clear sequence of benchmarks leading to a genuinely democratic process. SADC leaders so far have been unwilling to put great pressure on President Mugabe, but were asked to seize the opportunity to talk to him now about a retirement package to be implemented in 2008.

The only untimely event preventing a united pressure on the Mugabe regime is the splitting up of the MDC into two feuding factions. The opposition party has therefore lost much of its trust among the population.

Nevertheless, both MDC factions and "powerful elements" of the ruling party were indeed "supporting the concept" and could persuade other elements of the ZANU-PF to block President Mugabe's planned extension of his term. According to information gathered by ICG, the same power factions also support a transitional power-sharing government from 2008 till elections in 2010.

"The situation today is reminiscent of the last stages of Mobutu's reign in the Congo", says ICG President Gareth Evans. "Zimbabwe has the potential to fall into chaos and bring large chunks of the region down with it unless both domestic and international parties act now," Mr Evans warned SADC leaders.

By staff writer

© afrol News

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