afrol News, 11 October - The cost of conflict on African development between 1990 and 2005 was estimated at US $300 billion, a new research by Oxfam International, International Action Network on Small Arms (IANSA) and Saferworld unveiled. This is equal to the amount of money Africa received in international aid from major donors during the same period.

The study, dubbed “Africa’s Missing Billions,” is the first-ever research in which analysts have been able to estimate the overall effects of conflicts on Gross Domestic Product across the continent. It is published at a time when the world’s diplomats are set to discuss Arms Trade Treaty in the United States.

The new study revealed that on average, war, civil war or insurgency shrinks an African economy by 15% and that Africa loses an average of around US $18 billion to armed conflict annually. Between 1990 and 2005, 23 African nations were involved in conflict.

It was also estimated that 95% of Kalashnikov rifles, which are the most common weapon in Africa’s conflicts, come from outside Africa. Also, combatants who commit human rights abuses by ignoring the rules of war are almost always supplied from outside the continent.

IANSA Africa Coordinator, Joseph Dube, said, “this report describes some of the devastating economic impacts of the poorly regulated international arms trade and the shocking level of human suffering that this causes.

“As an African, I implore all African governments and weapons producing governments to support a strong and effective Arms Trade Treaty. This is a call for global cooperation and cannot be achieved working alone,” he said, adding that the government whose factory produces the rifle is as responsible as the one that permits its ships to transport them.

“Similarly the states that unload the cargo must monitor whose hands these weapons end up in. Without this regulation, the cost and suffering borne by Africans will continue to be immense.”

Oxfam’s African Policy Advisor, Irungu Houghton, described armed violence as one of the greatest threats to Africa’s development. “The costs are shocking. Our figures are almost certainly an underestimate but they show conflicts are costing African economies an average of $18bn a year. This money could solve the HIV/AIDS crisis, prevent TB and malaria, or provide clean water, sanitation and education.”

Researchers wonder how the GDP of countries in conflict would have been without conflict. For instance, without the 1998/9 conflict in Guinea Bissau, the country’s projected growth rate would have been 5.2%, but the actual growth rate was down by 10.15%.

The study does not include the economic impact on neighbouring countries as a result of political insecurity or a sudden influx of refugees - it only covers periods of actual combat, but some costs of war, such as increased military spending and a struggling economy, continue long after the fighting has stopped.

In countries affected by war the direct costs of violence (such as military expenditure or the destruction of infrastructure) pale in comparison to the indirect costs of lost opportunities.

Despite taking encouraging steps at regional levels to control the proliferation of arms by African governments, researchers stressed the need for a global, legally-binding arms trade treaty.

President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf of Liberia whose country had just emerged from a 14-year civil war wrote the report’s preface.

By Musa Saidykhan

© afrol News

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