Global warming
Warmer world hits hardest on developing countries

afrol.com, 29 September - As growing emissions of greenhouse gases change the world's climate, increasing numbers of natural disasters are likely, according to a new study released today by WWF, the conservation organization. Less prepared to meet natural disasters, the developing world will be hardest hit. However, there are speculations about regional gains.

The report 'Climate Change and Extreme Weather Events' concludes that as concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere continue to rise, it is likely that there will be an increase in the intensity of rainstorms, river floods, droughts, and other extreme weather events. While few places in the world will be spared from climatic disruptions, the developing countries, with less infrastructure to meet the human and ecological demands these disasters create, will see much of the extreme weather patterns. 

Devastation from hurricanes could increase. Copyright: WWF-Canon/N. Dickinson.

"The intensity of extreme weather events will affect many parts of the world differently," said Pier Vellinga, Professor of Environmental Studies and leading climatologist at the Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam. "Climate change brings about a global redistribution of the costs and benefits of the weather. We should have no doubt that the costs will be much greater than the benefits."

Some zones will gain in precipitation, while other will lose. Studies have the clearest conclusions when it comes to climate change in the temperate and cold climatic zones, as these are more marginal climates and a temperature increase of one degree would have greater relative importance - and there have been more studies made. In tropical climates, the main effect is believed to be a weather with more extremes, meaning more natural disasters. 

However, there are speculations that some desert zones may benefit. The Sahara, for example, is known to have been forested under different global climate regimes. In the ice age, when global temperature was several degrees lower, Africa was dryer and the Sahara was more extensive. It is therefore speculated that the Sahel and Sudan zones could move further northwards if temperatures rise. Asked whether the Sahara would benefit from global warming, Toronto professor Jay Malcolm told afrol that there lacks information to assess this. "In general, the global climate models show less agreement amongst themselves with respect to precipitation," he told afrol.

Through a systematic analysis of the observed changes in temperature, precipitation patterns and intensity, sea level, snow and ice cover, ocean and atmosphere circulation patterns and ecosystems behaviour, the report documents the world-wide fluctuation in weather events and makes some predictions for future trends. These include a probable increase in the frequency and the intensity of El Niño-like conditions, with shorter and stronger La Niñas. The likely result of this would be growing numbers of heavy rains and storms interspersed with short dry spells in some regions, and more prolonged droughts punctuated by heavy rain years in other parts of the world. During summer months, for example, Southern Europe is expected to become drier while Northern Europe will probably get wetter. 

The WWF report emphasizes that the effects of climate change are already visible around the globe with growing evidence that economic damage as a result of extreme weather events has dramatically increased over the past decades. Münich Re, a leading reinsurance company, has concluded that after correcting for increased population, wealth and inflation, economic losses due to natural disasters increased two-fold in the period 1970-2000 while at the same time global average temperature has risen by about 0.4 degrees Celsius. This implies that at least part of the damage caused by weather extremes is due to human induced climate change, caused by the increase of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. 

"A flood or drought does not chose its victims based on a country's pollution policies," said Jennifer Morgan, Director of WWF's Climate Change Campaign. "Many of the world's developing countries will be struck the hardest by the increase in rainstorms or decreases in precipitation patterns. Though the developing world saw little benefit from the Northern Hemisphere's industrial revolution they may pay the highest price for the greenhouse gas emissions it produced during the last century."

Source: Based on WWF

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