afrol News, 11 April - Security analysts are concerned over a possible military takeover in Guinea as the long reign of chronically ill President Lansana Conté "nears its end". With a power struggle already observed to be emerging in Guinea, international actors were today advised to send clear signals that a military takeover would be unacceptable.

The Brussels-based think-tank International Crisis Group (ICG) today released a report - 'Guinea in Transition' - examining scenarios for the country's future in light of President Conté's acknowledged illness and increasing invisibility at the centre of government.

Although parts of Guinea's civilian elite are beginning to treat the country's future as their collective concern, the probability of a military takeover remains high, the ICG holds. Fellow African countries and African institutions, as well as the European Union and the US, should encourage the new civic spirit, the group advises. "More civil society funding is needed as well as the warning to military leaders and politicians who may not trust their own democratic appeal."

"A new chapter in Guinean history is beginning," commented Mike McGovern of the Crisis Group. "Guinea's future will require a shift away from personality-based politics toward concrete, consultative attempts to build institutions. Guinea's would-be leaders should come forward with their visions for the nation's future, and international actors should give them every encouragement," he urged.

Even though civil society and political parties in Conakry have taken the first step toward setting a new national agenda, average citizens still suffer under the combined weight of hunger, lack of electricity and water, decrepit communications infrastructure and lack of health and education services. The ICG therefore urged donors to "do their part" to ensure a successful political transition. Guinea is now mostly cut off from foreign aid due to poor relations with the World Bank and the IMF.

The report further concluded that it was "vital" to build on three major advances that have taken place over the last six months. These advances included important, but incomplete political reforms instituted to revise electoral lists and establish an electoral commission and privately-owned electronic media; the December 2005 municipal elections, which could be considered a "practice run" for the next poll; and the general strike and mid-March National Consultation that have positioned trade unions and professional and civil society organisations as a potential counterbalance to the alliance between the ruling party and the Guinean military.

The National Consultation was seen as "a major breakthrough" in a country where there has been little space for such discussions during the Conté regime. International actors were urged by the ICG to "support the dialogue begun there by preparing for transparent legislative and possibly presidential elections and supporting a National Conference to set social, political and governance goals."

"Guineans have been governed so badly for so long that instead of seeing the approaching end of the Conté era as an opportunity, most diplomats are looking for the least bad option," said Suliman Baldo, the Crisis Group's Africa Programme Director. "Like anyone else, Guineans will tend to rise as high as the bar is set," he added.

Both African states and Western nations were now urged to act in a supportive way towards democratically minded groups in Guinea. The alternative may be a coup following the death of President Conté, the ICG warns. "The probability is now high that President Conté's term will end in a military takeover, which some seem prepared to accept before the fact, as if it were a means of preserving Guinea's sovereignty," the report laments.

The Brussels-based group finds proof for its theory of an ongoing power struggle in "the melodramatic events of 4-5 April" this year, which are yet to be fully explained. Thus, a major cabinet shake-up was announced initially on national radio, then stopped in mid-broadcast by soldiers during a second announcement. This within hours led to the relevant presidential decree being rescinded and the Prime Minister sacked.

Some claim the Prime Minister had forged part or all of the decree that was said to be signed by President Conté and would have strengthened the Prime Minister's position relative to a rival clan close to the President. Others say the clan, led by the Secretary-General of the presidency, Fodé Bangoura, simply convinced the President to change his position publicly.

"It does not matter which version is true," the ICG report notes. "Both point to fundamental decrepitude, verging on anarchy, at the centre of a government incapable of taking decisions except by the decree of an individual who is fickle at best and may now not be fully competent to act."

By staff writers

© afrol News

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