- Predictions of economic growth in Angola during this year vary from fantastic to incredible numbers. The most pessimistic forecasts foresee a GDP growth rate of 17 percent for 2007, while the IMF expects the Angola economy to grow by over 31 percent. Most of all, the oil sector is booming, with a production growth of around 40 percent this year.
In 2007, Angola again is expected to become Africa's biggest economic success story. Several international institutions and the Luanda government have already presented their predictions for this year's development, and all agree that the Angolan boom is continuing at full speed.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest forecast for the Angolan economy expects a GDP growth of 31.4 percent this year, close to the World Bank's prognosis of 30.2 percent. The Angolan government is equally optimistic, putting 2007's GDP growth at 31.2 percent. While still being optimistic, the OECD foresees a growth of 20 percent and the EIU at 16.8 percent.
These very optimistic forecasts for 2007 follow a year of unprecedented economic boom in Angola. While the figures for economic growth in 2006 still vary, the Luanda government puts it at 15.5 percent. The other sources vary from 14.2 percent (EIU) up to 26 percent (OECD).
The unprecedented growth in the poverty-ridden nation even shows signs of being a sound growth. Inflation has started to get under control. According to the IMF, last year it had gone down to 10 percent, while it expected to lower to 8 percent by the end of this year.
Not unexpectedly, much of the Angolan boom is driven by the expansion of oil production. While the oil sector grew by an estimated 15.0 percent last year - according to IMF figures - it is expected to boom by 40.9 percent this year. Angola's oil production is expected to rise from 1,434 thousands of barrels per day in 2006 to 2,019 this year - representing a growth of around 40 percent in just one year.
But not only the oil sector is doing well. The non-oil sector last year was able to almost follow the growth in the oil sector, increasing by a rate of 13.8 percent. The IMF expects a similar growth in the non-oil sector this year, demonstrating that current economic development in Angola is broad-based.
Also government revenues and investments are thus allowed to expand rapidly during this year - both at a rate of around 35 percent. While the IMF foresees a growth in government debts from US$ 15 to 16.3 billion, the external debt ratio on GDP will actually lower this year, due to the massive GDP growth, according to the IMF analysis.
Further good news for Angolans is that investments in the country over the last four year now total over US$ 4 billion, according to Angola's National Private Investment Agency (ANIP). "In the last year alone, 463 investment projects have been approved, the highest number over the last three years, with a total value of US$ 794 million," said ANIP chief executive, Ari de Carvalho.
Mr Carvalho noted that the construction sector saw the highest number of projects approved, with a total of 238, followed by industry with 173. "The growth of investment projects approved since 2003 shows the growing interest investors have in doing business in the country, motivated in part by macro-economic stability and economic growth," he noted.
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