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The Gambia's economic and financial performance indicators
The International Monetary foundation (IMF) in November 1999 assessed
The Gambia's economic and financial performance
to have "encountered difficulties in implementing the IMF program mainly in fiscal policy but also in a number of structural reforms. Moreover, the government's seizure of the property of The Gambia Groundnut Corporation
(GGC) - a marketing monopoly of major economic importance - created a confidence problem for private investors."
The government's strategy for 1999-2000, however, is aimed at consolidating the gains made in 1998 and so far in 1999, despite some slippages and adverse developments during that period. In 1998, GDP grew by 4.7%, compared to the program target of 3.8%. In 1999, GDP is projected to moderate to rise by 4.2% and rise by 5% in 2000.
The fiscal program through 2000 aims to reduce the overall deficit to 2.5% of GDP in 2000 from 4.5% in 1998, with a repayment of domestic debt equivalent to 5.1% of total outstanding government domestic debt. In its budget for 2000, the government plans to further reduce expenditure to 16.3% of GDP in 2000 from 18.1% in 1998, while at the same time bolstering domestic revenue to about 20% of GDP in 2000 from 18.8% in 1998.
The 1999-2000 program further aims at reducing the external account deficit to 10.8% of GDP in 1999 and to 10.5% in 2000 from 11.5% in 1998, while increasing gross external reserves to an equivalent of about 4 months of imports of goods and services during 1999-2000.
Monetary policy will focus on containing average annual inflation at about 2.5% in 1999 and 2000, while maintaining an adequate level of gross official reserves. The exchange rate will continue to float freely and the central bank will limit its interventions to smoothing out seasonal fluctuations and meeting its external reserves objective. The monetary authorities will monitor closely the liquidity of the banking system and continue to rely on indirect instruments for monetary control.
On structural reforms, the government is taking steps to strengthen the legal and institutional framework, including efforts to quickly resolve the dispute concerning the GGC's property. It also adopted and will continue to approve the divestiture strategy and investment and procurement codes. It intends to further simplify the external tariff structure and improve the soundness of the banking system.
The government's strategy on social policy will focus on improving employment opportunities in key sectors such as agriculture and tourism and on providing better social services. It aims to raise enrollment rates in basic education to 77% in 2001/02 from 70% in 1998/99, while improving the quality of teachers. The government also plans to improve health care provisions and increase spending for primary and secondary health care to 14.8% in 1999 and 15.4% in 2000 from 14.5% of noninterest current spending in 1998.
Some Economic Indicators, 1994/95-20021
(mouseover footnotes)
|
|
1994/95 |
1995/96 |
1996/97 |
|
1997 |
|
1998 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
| |
|
(Annual percentage changes, unless
otherwise indicated) |
|
National income and prices |
|
GDP at constant prices |
-3.4 |
5.3 |
|
0.8 |
|
4.9 |
|
3.8 |
4.7 |
4.2 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
5.0 |
|
GDP deflator |
4.4 |
3.3 |
4.5 |
2.3 |
2.7 |
1.8 |
2.3 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
2.4 |
|
Consumer price index (period average) |
4.0 |
4.8 |
2.1 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
1.1 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
|
Consumer price index (end of period) |
5.2 |
0.2 |
4.8 |
0.3 |
3.0 |
4.4 |
2.0 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
2.5 |
| |
|
External sector |
|
Exports, f.o.b. (in SDRs) |
-7.8 |
-2.6 |
|
-2.7 |
|
-0.5 |
|
11.2 |
23.7 |
7.2 |
10.0 |
7.2 |
5.3 |
|
Imports, f.o.b. (in SDRs) |
-22.1 |
28.2 |
-5.8 |
-5.3 |
4.1 |
16.1 |
6.6 |
8.2 |
5.8 |
6.0 |
|
Export volume (excluding reexports) |
-5.1 |
-6.3 |
-25.2 |
-26.2 |
61.4 |
74.1 |
10.0 |
7.1 |
7.6 |
7.6 |
|
Import volume (excluding imports for
reexport) |
-25.9 |
41.2 |
-10.0 |
-7.6 |
7.2 |
17.2 |
2.8 |
4.8 |
4.5 |
4.5 |
|
Terms of trade 2 |
14.8 |
-1.4 |
4.8 |
10.8 |
2.6 |
-9.4 |
-13.0 |
-0.2 |
0.5 |
0.5 |
|
Nominal effective exchange rate (period
average) |
-0.7 |
-2.1 |
2.1 |
3.0 |
... |
-1.2 |
3.9 |
... |
... |
... |
|
Real effective exchange rate (period
average) |
-7.0 |
-0.5 |
1.8 |
4.7 |
... |
-1.6 |
3.6 |
... |
... |
... |
| |
|
Government budget |
|
Revenue |
-11.7 |
-1.2 |
|
15.3 |
|
11.1 |
|
8.7 |
4.0 |
11.1 |
10.1 |
8.0 |
9.1 |
|
Total expenditure and net lending |
2.7 |
28.1 |
8.6 |
-6.3 |
-7.0 |
-8.5 |
4.2 |
6.7 |
8.0 |
6.7 |
|
Current expenditure |
0.8 |
8.1 |
10.5 |
15.8 |
-3.5 |
0.7 |
4.0 |
-0.8 |
2.8 |
5.5 |
|
Development expenditure and net
lending |
-3.0 |
97.5 |
6.0 |
-35.9 |
-15.3 |
-30.5 |
5.2 |
32.5 |
21.6 |
9.5 |
| |
|
Money and credit |
|
Net domestic assets 3 |
8.9 |
-11.5 |
|
13.2 |
|
15.9 |
|
2.7 |
-1.9 |
6.2 |
3.8 |
4.1 |
2.1 |
|
Credit to the government 3 |
9.8 |
8.2 |
2.8 |
2.4 |
-1.0 |
-1.7 |
0.7 |
-3.9 |
-4.4 |
-6.1 |
|
Credit to the private sector 3
4 |
5.0 |
-13.7 |
2.2 |
9.9 |
3.7 |
5.6 |
5.5 |
7.8 |
8.5 |
8.3 |
|
Broad money |
8.1 |
8.8 |
16.7 |
22.3 |
6.8 |
10.2 |
14.0 |
7.5 |
7.5 |
7.5 |
|
Velocity (GDP relative to broad money)
|
4.2 |
4.2 |
3.8 |
3.5 |
3.5 |
3.4 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
3.2 |
3.1 |
|
Treasury bill rate (in percent; end of
period) |
15.5 |
16.0 |
16.0 |
16.0 |
... |
14.0 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
|
(In percent of GDP)
|
|
Gross domestic investment and savings |
|
Gross investment |
16.0 |
23.4 |
|
19.3 |
|
17.2 |
|
18.7 |
18.4 |
17.8 |
19.5 |
20.5 |
20.6 |
|
Government |
6.1 |
12.9 |
12.7 |
8.4 |
6.9 |
5.9 |
5.7 |
7.0 |
7.7 |
7.8 |
|
Private 4 |
9.9 |
10.5 |
6.6 |
8.8 |
11.8 |
12.5 |
12.1 |
12.5 |
12.8 |
12.8 |
|
Gross domestic savings |
3.5 |
2.9 |
6.0 |
7.1 |
9.6 |
7.8 |
7.4 |
9.4 |
10.6 |
10.7 |
|
Gross national savings |
11.7 |
10.0 |
12.6 |
13.5 |
14.4 |
15.3 |
14.0 |
15.6 |
17.6 |
17.7 |
|
Government |
10.1 |
8.0 |
8.2 |
8.5 |
9.9 |
10.6 |
10.5 |
11.6 |
12.8 |
12.5 |
|
Private 4 |
1.6 |
2.0 |
4.4 |
5.0 |
4.5 |
4.8 |
3.5 |
4.0 |
4.8 |
5.2 |
| |
|
Central government budget |
|
Surplus or deficit (-), excluding grants 5 |
-5.9 |
-12.1 |
|
-11.4 |
|
-7.8 |
|
-4.0 |
-4.5 |
-3.1 |
-2.5 |
-2.5 |
-2.0 |
|
Surplus or deficit (-), including grants 5 |
-3.3 |
-9.9 |
-9.7 |
-6.5 |
-2.7 |
-2.5 |
-1.7 |
-0.9 |
-0.2 |
0.2 |
|
Basic primary balance |
3.7 |
3.6 |
5.1 |
4.9 |
7.0 |
5.7 |
6.6 |
7.6 |
7.8 |
7.8 |
|
Current balance |
0.9 |
0.1 |
0.9 |
0.1 |
2.3 |
0.7 |
2.0 |
3.8 |
4.6 |
5.2 |
|
Revenue |
19.5 |
17.7 |
19.4 |
19.3 |
19.6 |
18.8 |
19.6 |
20.1 |
20.2 |
20.4 |
|
Net foreign financing |
0.1 |
5.5 |
7.4 |
4.1 |
3.0 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
1.6 |
|
Net domestic financing |
3.1 |
4.2 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
0.3 |
1.8 |
0.6 |
-1.2 |
-1.3 |
-1.8 |
| |
|
External sector |
|
Current account balance |
|
Excluding official transfers |
-12.5 |
-20.1 |
|
-12.8 |
|
-10.6 |
|
-10.6 |
-11.6 |
-10.8 |
-10.5 |
-10.1 |
-9.5 |
|
Including official transfers |
-4.3 |
-13.4 |
-6.7 |
-3.7 |
-4.3 |
-3.0 |
-3.8 |
-3.9 |
-2.9 |
-2.4 |
|
External debt outstanding, including
Fund |
109.2 |
111.1 |
107.0 |
104.4 |
104.6 |
107.5 |
104.1 |
109.2 |
112.7 |
112.8 |
| |
|
(In percent of exports and travel
income)
|
|
External debt service |
|
Including Fund |
18.1 |
16.2 |
|
13.1 |
|
13.5 |
|
10.9 |
11.4 |
10.3 |
8.8 |
9.2 |
9.4 |
|
Excluding Fund |
14.4 |
11.8 |
8.9 |
9.2 |
8.2 |
8.5 |
7.0 |
7.6 |
8.6 |
8.1 |
| |
|
(In millions of SDRs, unless otherwise
indicated)
|
|
Current account balance |
|
Excluding official transfers |
-30.8 |
-53.4 |
|
-36.3 |
|
-31.4 |
|
-33.0 |
-35.6 |
-32.9 |
-34.4 |
-35.7 |
-36.2 |
|
Including official transfers |
-10.6 |
-35.6 |
-19.0 |
-11.0 |
-13.3 |
-9.3 |
-11.8 |
-12.8 |
-10.4 |
-9.1 |
|
Overall balance of payments |
-4.6 |
12.4 |
5.2 |
4.7 |
2.2 |
7.1 |
6.6 |
1.8 |
1.6 |
6.0 |
|
Gross official reserves (end of
period) |
62.5 |
70.1 |
70.4 |
69.6 |
76.8 |
75.4 |
82.4 |
91.4 |
101.1 |
107.1 |
|
In months of imports, c.i.f. |
5.9 |
5.2 |
5.5 |
5.6 |
5.6 |
5.1 |
5.3 |
5.6 |
6.0 |
6.0 |
| |
|
In months of imports, c.i.f. |
|
Over the next 12 months |
4.6 |
5.5 |
|
5.3 |
|
4.7 |
|
5.4 |
4.8 |
5.1 |
5.4 |
5.6 |
5.7 |
|
Plus all other services payments |
3.9 |
4.6 |
4.4 |
3.9 |
4.4 |
3.9 |
4.2 |
4.4 |
4.8 |
4.9 |
| |
|
As a share of short-term debt 6 |
5.1 |
5.5 |
|
6.2 |
|
5.7 |
|
4.9 |
4.9 |
5.8 |
6.8 |
6.6 |
6.6 |
Source:
IMF
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