afrol News, 12 July - "Lack of good faith on the part of all sides in the Côte d'Ivoire peace process is jeopardising the October 2005 elections and could cause the war to spread to neighbouring countries," a new report warns. The political elite, including the militias, has little interest in breaking the impasse as a parallel state has been created, thriving on the war economy.

The latest report on the situation in Côte d'Ivoire from the Brussels-based think-tank International Crisis Group (ICG), examines the political stand-off most notably between President Gbagbo and his FPI party on the one hand and the rebel Forces Nouvelles on the other, as well as the economic incentives that make war lucrative for almost everyone except ordinary citizens.

- If there is to be any chance of peace, ICG concludes, "the international community, and especially the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), needs to take on the spoilers more assertively and openly, and end impunity for the perpetrators of continued violence."

- No political actor has shown the will to break the impasse", says the ICG's Mike McGovern. "Diplomacy built upon the assumption that the parties aim to negotiate in good faith is doomed to failure."

The key issues addressed in the January 2003 peace plan of Linas-Marcoussis - nationality, eligibility for elections, and disarmament - were said to be "as pressing as ever, yet all are deadlocked." Opposition parties that left the national reconciliation government of National Reconciliation have yet to return. The Forces Nouvelles not only refuse to disarm until after elections, but are now flirting with secession.

- Underpinning the impasse is a shadowy system of patronage and wealth extraction that benefits the political elite, security forces, militias, and businessmen, according to the group's report. This system undermines the political will to find solutions to the Ivorian conflict.

Through what the report calls "an Enron-like maze of front companies and complex financial transactions," revenues from the cocoa, coffee, and timber industries reportedly are siphoned off, along with profits from cotton and weapons trading, "creating a parallel state that thrives on the war economy."

Further complicating the picture is a web of internal rivalries between these groups, none of which is homogenous. There are several competing fractions within the ruling FPI party and the Forces Nouvelles, all with their special business interests.

- Competition for diminishing resources has become increasingly bitter, and anti-foreigner rhetoric among those who consider themselves "true" Ivorians has gained momentum, the report says. "Although the debate about who is, or should be, an Ivorian citizen is largely fuelled by those seeking cover for their illegal economic activities, Côte d'Ivoire is rapidly approaching a tipping point, at which the rancour risks moving to a dangerous new level."

The ICG report warns of an even deeper crisis. "The combination of lawlessness and the economic consequences of the crisis could draw Mali, Burkina Faso, or both directly into the war", says the ICG's Stephen Ellis. "Regional and international leaders need to pay close attention to this dynamic, which could turn the Côte d'Ivoire conflict into a broader West African war," he adds.

By staff writer

© afrol News

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